Análise hierárquica aplicada a riscos geo-hidrológico

análise espaço-temporal de alagamento e inundação no município de Aracaju (SE)

Abstract

The flat to slightly undulating topography with direct influence of tide of the syzygial are intrinsic factors that facilitate inundation in the municipality of Aracaju during periods of higher rainfall. Flooding in the intensely urbanized area is mainly due to soil impermeability and inefficiency of the rainwater drainage system. This research presents spatiotemporal scenarios of inundated and flooded areas in Aracaju, based on spatial interpolations of Inverse Distance Weighting and Kernel Density and Hierarchical Multicriteria Analysis, in the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. The modeling found that more than 50% of the municipality is in a vulnerable situation, with high to very high risk in the years studied. The intensely urbanized and impermeable area, located in the North, South, West and Central zones, is the most affected. In these areas, the rivers and streams that were once natural have been narrowed and channeled to create micro and macro drainage systems, which are currently inefficient for draining rainwater. Although noble neighborhoods are flooded and even inundated, the greatest impacts occur in the poorer neighborhoods due to precarious housing and a lack of basic essential services. The rapid and inadequate urbanization of neighborhoods in the expansion zone is expected to present the same problems as in the intensely urbanized region in the coming years. Minimizing flooding and inundation depends on the effective participation of public and private agencies, the scientific community and society in general to develop specific instruments in terms of planning actions, defining procedures and assigning responsibilities.